Will India Stop Buying Russian Oil?

In a swift and direct response to claims made by US President Donald Trump, India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has stated that the nation’s energy import policy is guided purely by national interest and the need to protect its consumers, not by external pressure. The clarification comes amidst intense diplomatic and commercial friction, following President Trump’s assertion that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had "assured" him that India would cease purchasing Russian crude. The MEA categorically denied that any such conversation or assurance took place regarding the halting of oil imports from Russia, while a US official later claimed Indian refiners would cut imports by 50%.

India, the world’s third largest oil consumer, became a critical buyer of discounted Russian crude after Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine led Western nations to impose sanctions. This shift saw Russia become India's largest crude oil supplier, a move that the US administration has opposed, leading to the imposition of punitive tariffs on Indian goods.

In its official statement, the MEA emphasized that the "twin goals" of its energy policy are "ensuring stable energy prices and secured supplies" for the Indian consumer in a volatile global market. "Our import policies are guided entirely by this objective," the statement declared, adding that the country is consistently broad basing its energy sourcing and diversifying to meet market conditions. This diversification includes a willingness to expand energy cooperation with the US, a key element in ongoing bilateral trade discussions.

However, recent data suggests a slight, commercially driven dip in Russian oil imports, with public sector refiners reportedly reducing their intake by as much as 45% between June and September of this year, a move industry analysts attribute more to narrowing discounts on Russian oil and rising freight costs than to political coercion. Despite this minor reduction, Russia still accounts for approximately one third of India's total crude imports.

Industry insiders caution that an immediate and complete halt to Russian oil purchases would be both costly and complex, tied up in long term contracts and refinery logistics. Such a move would force India, which imports nearly 88% of its oil, to seek replacement supplies on the volatile spot market, potentially driving up domestic inflation and global oil prices. For New Delhi, the challenge remains balancing the deeply discounted economic benefits of Russian oil with the strategic and trade relationship with Washington. While the government maintains its strategic autonomy on energy decisions, the financial pressure and the lure of a favorable trade deal with the US indicate that the future of Russia’s dominance in the Indian oil market is a calibrated calculation, not a done deal. India is poised to continue playing a shrewd balancing game, prioritising affordable energy for its vast population while navigating complex geopolitics.

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